Ethnic tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and nationalist forces in the northern Tigray region have erupted into a full-blown armed conflict. Are we on the brink of yet another civil war that could upend the Horn of Africa?

The back story. Tigray, despite accounting for only 5 percent of Ethiopia’s population, has long punched above its weight in federal politics. After a coalition led by the radical Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) helped end the brutal reign of dictator Haile Mengistu in 1991, Tigrayan Meles Zenawi led the country for twenty years.