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How Europe can stop Ethiopia’s slide into a regional war (ecfr.eu)
December 15, 2020 2:42 PM / Leave a comment
How Europe can stop Ethiopia’s slide into a regional war (Source: ecfr.eu)
The recent war in Ethiopia may at first glance appear to be a short, sharp internal conflict with few implications for the Horn of Africa – or for Europe. But the war is far from over, and the risks it creates are spreading.
The war with Tigray marks the explosion of simmering tensions between Ethiopia’s former dominant party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In 2019 the prime minister replaced the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front with the Prosperity Party, prompting the TPLF to withdraw from the coalition rather than dissolve to join the new government. The slide into conflict began in August that year, when Abiy Ahmed delayed a national election scheduled for May 2020, citing concerns about covid-19. In response, the TPLF questioned Abiy Ahmed’s legitimacy and proceeded with a regional election in Tigray in September. The prime minister froze federal funds to Tigray the following month, and the TPLF attacked the Ethiopian army’s Northern Command soon after.